Sisters Rental Market: Q1 2026 Update

Sisters enters spring 2026 telling two very different stories depending on whether you own a single-family rental or a multifamily unit. For SFH landlords, the fundamentals remain strong: rents climbed 8.0% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $2,435, annual growth hit 10.0%, and new single-family construction in Deschutes County is essentially flat. That combination of rising rents and constrained supply is exactly what you want to see as a property owner.

On the multifamily side, the picture is more complicated. Apartment rents grew a modest 2.6% QoQ, but a massive wave of new construction (1,410 permitted units, a 207% year-over-year increase across the county) is heading toward the market. That supply surge will put pressure on apartment occupancy and rents over the next 12 to 24 months. And SFH landlords should understand why that matters to them, too.

Here are the five numbers that define this quarter.

The Divergence

This quarter’s defining story is the widening gap between SFH and MFH performance. Single-family rents are growing three times faster than apartment rents on a quarterly basis, and the $635 monthly premium that SFH commands over multifamily ($2,435 vs. $1,800) reflects the extra space, private yards, and neighborhood appeal that tenants in a lifestyle-driven community like Sisters are willing to pay for.

Both property types carry vacancy rates above the 5-8% range typically considered healthy. SFH vacancy sits at 10.7% (based on 142 occupied units out of an estimated 159 total), while MF vacancy improved this quarter from 14.0% to 11.7%. That improvement in the apartment market is encouraging, but both sectors still reflect a market with adequate supply relative to current demand.

For context, the Western U.S. rental vacancy rate was roughly 5.7% as of mid-2025 according to Census Bureau data. Sisters running nearly double that figure underscores the importance of pricing discipline in a small market where every unleased unit represents a meaningful share of total inventory.

The Pricing Disconnect

Here is the single most actionable data point in this quarter’s report. There is a 23% gap between what landlords are asking on Zillow ($3,000 average) and what tenants are actually paying in-place ($2,435). That $565 difference tells us something important about how the market is pricing right now.

Some of that gap is normal. Spring listings tend to come in at a premium, and newer or upgraded properties naturally command higher asking rents. But a 23% disconnect, combined with the days-on-market data we will look at next, suggests many landlords are overestimating the market’s tolerance. The $2,400 to $2,500 range is where standard SFH listings are most competitive. Premium properties with newer finishes and desirable locations can test $2,700 to $2,800, but anything above $3,000 needs exceptional justification.

For landlords subject to Oregon’s rent stabilization law, the 2026 maximum allowable increase is 9.5% for properties 15 years or older (7% plus CPI). Properties newer than 15 years are exempt. Either way, market conditions, not the legal cap, are the binding constraint in Sisters right now.

Speed to Lease

This is where the data gets most interesting, and where the pricing story comes into sharpest focus.

Two different data sources are telling two different stories. Units that actually leased in the past 30 days took an average of 57 days to find a tenant (per our database, as of March 21). But current listings still active on Zillow have been posted for an average of 123 days (as of April 1). That is a 116% gap between successful leases and the properties still waiting.

The interpretation is straightforward. Properties that are priced right and presented well are still leasing at a reasonable pace. But listings that miss on price, condition, or marketing are sitting far longer than they should. Spring inventory is outpacing renter demand, and landlords who listed in January or February at aggressive asking rents are still waiting.

Multifamily is seeing a similar slowdown. MF days on market jumped from 48 days in Q4 2025 to 79 days in Q1 2026, a 65% increase. Some of that is seasonal (Q1 is always slower), but the magnitude suggests more than just winter weather.

Why Renters Are Staying Put

The broader economic backdrop helps explain why rental demand in Sisters remains solid even as some metrics soften. Three macro factors are keeping tenants in the rental pool.

Mortgage rates are hovering around 6.25% to 6.50% as of early April 2026, according to Freddie Mac and Zillow. That is down from above 7% a year ago but still elevated enough to keep many potential homebuyers renting. Sisters home sale prices have dipped roughly 3.4% year-over-year, and median days on market for sales jumped from 16 to 77 days. The purchase market is slowing, which reinforces rental demand.

Sisters’ population sits somewhere in the range of 2,900 to 3,738 depending on the source. The city’s official estimate runs toward the higher end, while census-derived projections are lower. Either way, this is a small market where individual listings, projects, and economic shifts can move the entire market in ways that larger metros would never feel.

The Supply Shock

If there is one chart in this report that tells the whole story, it is the building permit data from Deschutes County.

Multifamily permits surged from 460 to 1,410 units, a 207% increase year-over-year. That is a county-wide figure, but Sisters will feel the effects as new apartment supply in Bend and Redmond puts competitive pressure on rents across the region. Meanwhile, single-family permits were essentially flat at +1.3%. For SFH landlords, that is the data point that matters most. Limited new construction means limited new competition.

The Ripple Effect

As multifamily rents soften and new apartments offer move-in concessions, the 35% premium that SFH commands over apartments becomes increasingly difficult to justify for margin-conscious renters. This does not mean SFH landlords should panic. It means they should defend their value proposition. Well-maintained properties in desirable neighborhoods with responsive management will retain tenants. Neglected properties priced at the top of the market will struggle.

Locally, the Trinity Place affordable housing project (40 units targeting 50-80% AMI households) is expected to begin leasing in 2026. That represents a 16% increase to Sisters’ existing 255-unit multifamily inventory. While this project primarily impacts the apartment market, its income-restricted rents may anchor the lower end of the market and compress pricing for market-rate MF units.

The Structural Moat

One of Sisters’ underappreciated advantages is tenant stability.

Multifamily retention data (the most complete dataset available) shows a 68.0% retention rate in Sisters, compared to 64.1% across the broader Bend market. Average tenancy runs 3.1 years in Sisters versus 2.8 years in Bend. For SFH, industry research consistently shows that single-family tenants stay 20-30% longer than apartment renters, suggesting an estimated Sisters SFH tenancy of roughly 3.7 to 4.0 years.

Why do Sisters tenants stay? A combination of limited housing alternatives, strong community and school quality, and the lifestyle appeal of a small mountain town at the base of the Cascades. For landlords, this translates to a more predictable income stream and meaningfully lower operating costs per year of ownership. This is a competitive advantage that professional property management can help you protect.

The 2026 Investor Playbook

The Outlook

The bottom line: Sisters remains a favorable market for single-family rental owners. Your competitive moat is real, built on limited supply, tenant stability, and lifestyle demand. But the market is asking for pricing discipline, not pricing ambition. Landlords who respect the data will outperform those who chase peak rents.